Designed for tourism industry stakeholders and Canadians who want to understand the future trajectory of growth for Canada’s tourism industry, it’s an online visualization of the projected growth of tourism spending and visitation.

Created in collaboration with Tourism Economics, Destination Canada’s Tourism Outlook model forecasts future tourism visitation and spending driven by domestic and international travel. 

Mexico is a crucial market for Canada, showing rapid post-pandemic recovery (113% of 2019 visits in 2023). However, a 2024 visa requirement caused a 28% decline in visits. Spending is projected to remain strong (111% of 2019 levels by 2025), but visits won't fully recover until 2028. Key target segments are "Refined Globetrotters" and "Outdoor Explorers." Canada needs to reinforce its "open and friendly" image to maintain resilience.

France is Canada's 3rd largest source of arrivals, with overnight visits projected to match 2019 levels in 2025 and spending exceeding by 20%. By 2026, Canada expects 697,800 French visitors generating $1.3 billion. Key segments are "Refined Globetrotters" and "Outdoor Explorers," seeking cultural, culinary, and nature experiences. Quebec is the most popular Canadian region for French visitors.

The following data provides a breakdown of past travel behaviour of Canadian travellers, future travel intentions, and likely type of future trips within Canada or internationally.

Australia is a critical market for Canada. Spending recovered to 2019 levels in 2023 ($820M), but full visitor volume recovery is projected by 2029. Economic factors and potential 2025 disruption are noted. Two priority segments, "Refined Globetrotters" and "Outdoor Explorers," are crucial, seeking luxury/unique experiences and adventure/nature, respectively, driving significant spend and visitation.

South Korea is vital for Canada's tourism recovery. Spending is projected to reach 2019 levels by 2026 ($478M from 205K visitors), with visitation recovering by 2030. Key segments include "Refined Globetrotters" (seeking luxury, high spend) and "Outdoor Explorers" (adventure-focused). Popular regions are BC, ON, QC. Travel agents are frequently used for booking and research.

French travelers show strong interest in Canada (6.8M potential in 2 years), valuing its safety, diverse activities, and Indigenous tourism (2nd globally). Quebec & Ontario are top destinations, popular in summer/fall/spring. AI is gaining traction for planning, but traditional booking methods persist. Geopolitical climate makes 38% more likely to visit.

Despite economic challenges, Canada anticipates strong growth from Japan in 2025, with spending projected to rise 32.2% and visitor numbers by 19.6%. However, visits are not expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by 2030. Key segments for Canada are "Refined Globetrotters" and "Outdoor Explorers," who are interested in cultural experiences, nature, and guided tours. The industry aims to reinforce Canada's welcoming image.