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Projected growth of tourism

Tourism Outlook

Understanding the future trajectory of growth for Canada's tourism industry.

Created in collaboration with Tourism Economics, Destination Canada’s Tourism Outlook model forecasts future tourism visitation and spending driven by domestic and international travel.

Designed for tourism industry stakeholders and Canadians who want to understand the future trajectory of growth for Canada’s tourism industry. A dynamic online visualization of the projected growth of tourism spending and visitation.

Canada’s tourism sector has made significant strides since our previous outlook in Fall 2022. We are now moving past recovery to a much welcome rebound, with tourism spending set to return to pre-COVID levels in 2023, earlier than previously forecasted.

The Fall 2023 Outlook presents two potential futures: staying on the current course and risking a loss of demand due to constraints upon the sector or transforming tourism in Canada to realise its full potential.

The Tourism Outlook to 2030 projects total visitor spending, domestic overnight trips, and overnight trips from the U.S. and key overseas markets. 

Note: The Fall 2023 Tourism Outlook was conducted between June and September 2023, and the outlook’s assumptions reflect the operating context of that time.

Explore the data

Snapshot 1: Tourism Today

Recovery & Rebound

Skiers in BC, Canada

Amid inflationary headwinds, tourism spending is showing resilience as Canada will exceed pre-pandemic records in 2023, reaching $109.5 billion.

Peggy's Cove in Nova Scotia

Anticipate a mild recession in late 2023 and early 2024 as ongoing inflation and increased interest rates squeeze personal disposable income.

Victoria, BC

Despite this, consumers are continuing to prioritize travel over other categories of discretionary spending.

Snapshot 2: Ambition 2030

Transformation & growth

People riding horses in Saskatchewan

The outlook shows that on our current path total spending by tourists will reach $140 billion by 2030, an increase of 33% compared to 2019. Domestic travellers will spend $97 billion and international tourists will spend $43 billion. 

People on a beach in Newfoundland

Canadians will make 97 million overnight domestic trips in 2030 and Canada will welcome 27 million international overnight arrivals. 

Niagara Falls

Travel will need to transform to chart a path for sustainable growth in order to achieve our full potential by 2030. Under this outlook, total spending by tourists would reach $160 billion by 2030, with 104 million overnight domestic visits and 28 million international visitors arriving in Canada that year. 

Lake nestled within mountains on a clear, sunny day with clouds

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