Designed for tourism industry stakeholders and Canadians who want to understand the future trajectory of growth for Canada’s tourism industry, it’s an online visualization of the projected growth of tourism spending and visitation.

Created in collaboration with Tourism Economics, Destination Canada’s Tourism Outlook model forecasts future tourism visitation and spending driven by domestic and international travel. 

Canada's tourism sector is recovering strongly, with spending surpassing pre-COVID levels in 2023. However, capacity constraints (accommodation, workforce, air access) limit its full potential. A "transformational path" is proposed to unlock an additional $20 billion annually by 2030, reaching $160 billion, through strategic shifts in demand and addressing supply issues. This transformation aims for significant economic benefits and sustainable growth.

Canada's Q3 2023 tourism saw international spending surpass 2019 levels (105%) for the first time, contributing to overall spending reaching 103% of pre-pandemic figures. Canada remains a top destination for US travelers. While air connectivity and hotel occupancy are recovering, the tourism labor force (2.5% below 2019) and active businesses (2.3% fewer) still lag. Domestic sentiment is positive, but international arrivals are at 81% of 2019 levels.

Canada's Q4 2023 tourism saw strong recovery: total spend exceeded pre-pandemic levels (108% of 2019), led by domestic tourism (110%) and recovering international spend (103%). International visitation reached 83% of 2019 levels, with sustained interest in Canada. While tourism employment and business activity lag slightly, air connectivity and hotel occupancy show robust recovery.

Canada's Q1 2024 tourism saw total spend exceed pre-pandemic levels (115% of 2019), driven by strong domestic spending (121%). International visitation reached 96% of 2019 levels (US 97%, non-US 92%). Canada is a top destination for Americans' next flight vacation and ranked top 3 in key markets like the UK, France, Germany, and Australia, highlighting its robust recovery and appeal.

Canada recorded 771K overnight arrivals in January 2024, up 9% from 2023. The US was the main source (506K, +6%). Mexico saw a 25% increase, and China a substantial 73% rise. Air travel grew significantly for both US (+13%) and other international visitors (+16%), while US land arrivals increased by 1%.

Canada recorded 979K overnight arrivals in February 2024, a 19% increase from 2023. The US contributed 659K (+15%), primarily via land. Significant growth was seen from China (+157%), Japan (+44%), South Korea (+35%), and Mexico (+32%). Air travel was the main mode for non-US visitors, while land travel dominated for US arrivals.

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